How our predictions are made

What Ten to One is

Ten to One is an independent football prediction and betting information site for South African punters. We are not a bookmaker and we do not accept bets or hold customer funds.

How the predictions are produced

Fixtures are priced by a statistical model using recent form, expected-goals data, head-to-head history, home and away performance splits, rest days and available squad information. The model's output is a probability for each outcome. That probability is compared against the market price, and a selection is published only where the gap is large enough to be worth acting on.

Model output is reviewed before publication for obvious data problems — a postponed fixture, a squad list that has not updated, a price that has already moved. We are explicit that this is a probabilistic process. It is wrong often, by design.

How we make money

Ten to One is an independent information and affiliate referral service. We do not accept bets. We earn a commission when you open an account through our links, at no extra cost to you. This never changes how we rate an operator.

What we will not claim

• We will not describe any selection as a sure win, a fixed match, or guaranteed.
• We will not delete or quietly amend a published selection after it loses.
• We will not present a strike rate without the prices it was achieved at.
• We will not rank an operator higher because it pays a higher commission.

Responsible gambling

Winners know when to stop. Only gamble with money you can afford to lose. Betting in South Africa is restricted to adults aged 18 and over. If gambling has stopped being fun, the National Responsible Gambling Programme helpline is 0800 006 008 — free and confidential, 24/7.

Contact and corrections

If you spot an error in a published selection, a result, or an operator's terms, tell us and we will correct it and note the correction.